As of August 16, 2025, I am 66 years and 4 months old, just a few months shy of the life expectancy for males born in the United States in 1959. If I were a furnace, with winter fast approaching, my owner would replace me now to avoid the inconvenience of my inevitable ‘breakdown’ at the most inopportune time this coming January. Or would they?
Since 1959, professional service contractors, with advanced training, have provided ongoing maintenance, repaired failing parts, and added high-tech equipment to keep me running. As a result, my 66.8 years of EUL is upgraded to 82.26 years according to Visual Capitalist. My owner can reasonably trust that there are 16 years of useful life left in me. While now might be a good time to begin planning to replace me with a modern model that operates at peak efficiency, there is no need to incur that expense today.
Your HVAC System Is Probably Alive and Well
Now, let’s apply this to your HVAC system. How old is it? Have you been maintaining it regularly? Is it operating at peak efficiency? These are crucial questions to consider when evaluating the lifespan and performance of your HVAC system.
Home inspectors are generally not actuaries. They don’t perform mathematical analysis to answer questions about the life expectancy of the key components of a home. They typically apply the commonly cited average life expectancy of 15-20 years for HVAC systems and write in their report that the system is “…at or nearing the end of the expected useful life.” Until this week, I have not seen anyone question the validity of the 15-20 year average figure. A client, with vast knowledge in research and analytics, enlightened me. They shared a research paper that opened my eyes, provided me with facts I needed to see, and made me a more valuable resource. I am grateful.
Because I misunderstood “average life expectancy,” I was skeptical when they told me a 25-year-old furnace (well past its average life expectancy) was unlikely to die in January, as a person might be led to believe. Once I reviewed the study and data, I understood what they were saying. If we were to place a $10,000 bet on when an HVAC system will fail, we would be better off considering the age of the furnace. A 25-year-old furnace, based on studies of 25-year-old furnaces, is likely to have a useful life measured in years, not days.
The interesting thing is, today, mid-August 2025, people are betting $10,000 that their aging furnace will fail this winter. People buying homes with 10-year-old HVAC systems are fearing they will soon face a tariff-inflated bill of more than $10,000. Home sellers are often asked to concede thousands of dollars out of fear that a properly functioning 15-year-old furnace will fail soon. At best, they offer a $1,000 home warranty to give the buyer some peace of mind, or at worst, they concede thousands to close the sale.
Consider the Facts
Lots of information is available in a split second—information based on facts and scientifically tested should carry more weight. The problem with facts is that they lack the fear factor of outdated opinions based on hearsay. For those of us who prefer to make spending decisions based on evidence, this study for the California Public Utilities offers valuable facts.